Türkiye'de Kamu Emeklilik Sistemlerinin Aktüeryal Modellemesi : Actuarial Modelling of Public Pension Schemes in Turkey /
Osman Nuri Erdem.
- 130 pages : charts, graphics ; 23 cm
Planning expertise thesis of Osman Nuri Erdem
In order to perform a long term study of financial structures of the public pension system in Turkey using assumptions regarding the variables affecting such structure and possible policy changes, an actuarial model designed according to the specific conditions of our country is needed to be used. An actuarial model which could reflect the basic tendency and the effects of past reforms in our country and be updated and improved according to the available data opportunities and allows for the examination of the main policy options has been created in order to address the need mentioned in the study for the public pension schemes. The model designed as modular in terms of being visible in intermediate steps of calculations and being improvable according to different needs, has been developed in MS Excel VBA based in order to be used easily. The interacted areas and the methods used in actuarial modeling of public pension schemes has been described in the study. Actuarial model samples produced by international organizations and other countries have been examined for the public pension schemes and the availability of these samples has been evaluated for Turkey. The data source of the model created for the purpose of the study and its functioning process have been described, the results of the test made by the data related to realization years have been evaluated. Then, with regard to set an example for the use of the model, a baseline scenario for the model has been created considering the basic trends of the public pension schemes in our country and the interaction areas of these systems. Later, other scenarios in the nature of sensitivity analysis and examination of the reform option have been produced and compared by changing the relevant assumptions of the baseline scenario. According to the base scenario results, revenue-expenditure balance of SSI runs surplus in 2020s, a revenue-expenditure gap has started to occur after 2030s, the mentioned gap growing quickly and reaching to the 5.1 % so as to the GDP ratio have been seen. Accordingly, the budget transfers to GDP ratio reaches 7 % in the long-run. The increase in general health insurance costs is seen to be more specific in the deterioration of SSI's longterm revenue-expenditure balance. As a result of the comparison of sensitivity analysis and scenarios created in the nature of the reform options, among the basic parameters used in the model, retirement age appears to be the most effective one for the long term financial status of the system. According to the base scenario results, although there is no actuarial balance in public pension schemes in our country, on condition of sticking to the reform implementations, old age, survivor and disability insurance deficit is considered to remain in a controllable level.