Türkiye'de Kamu Emeklilik Sistemlerinin Aktüeryal Modellemesi : Actuarial Modelling of Public Pension Schemes in Turkey / Osman Nuri Erdem.

Planning expertise thesis of Osman Nuri Erdem

In order to perform a long term study of financial structures of the public pension
system in Turkey using assumptions regarding the variables affecting such structure and
possible policy changes, an actuarial model designed according to the specific conditions of
our country is needed to be used.
An actuarial model which could reflect the basic tendency and the effects of past
reforms in our country and be updated and improved according to the available data
opportunities and allows for the examination of the main policy options has been created in
order to address the need mentioned in the study for the public pension schemes. The model
designed as modular in terms of being visible in intermediate steps of calculations and being
improvable according to different needs, has been developed in MS Excel VBA based in order
to be used easily.
The interacted areas and the methods used in actuarial modeling of public pension
schemes has been described in the study. Actuarial model samples produced by international
organizations and other countries have been examined for the public pension schemes and the
availability of these samples has been evaluated for Turkey. The data source of the model
created for the purpose of the study and its functioning process have been described, the results
of the test made by the data related to realization years have been evaluated. Then, with regard
to set an example for the use of the model, a baseline scenario for the model has been created
considering the basic trends of the public pension schemes in our country and the interaction
areas of these systems. Later, other scenarios in the nature of sensitivity analysis and
examination of the reform option have been produced and compared by changing the relevant
assumptions of the baseline scenario.
According to the base scenario results, revenue-expenditure balance of SSI runs
surplus in 2020s, a revenue-expenditure gap has started to occur after 2030s, the mentioned
gap growing quickly and reaching to the 5.1 % so as to the GDP ratio have been seen.
Accordingly, the budget transfers to GDP ratio reaches 7 % in the long-run. The increase in
general health insurance costs is seen to be more specific in the deterioration of SSI's longterm
revenue-expenditure balance. As a result of the comparison of sensitivity analysis and
scenarios created in the nature of the reform options, among the basic parameters used in the
model, retirement age appears to be the most effective one for the long term financial status of
the system.
According to the base scenario results, although there is no actuarial balance in public
pension schemes in our country, on condition of sticking to the reform implementations, old
age, survivor and disability insurance deficit is considered to remain in a controllable level.