Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations and Acronyms -- Key Definitions -- Executive Summary -- CHAPTER 1 Motivation and Scope of the Study -- Background -- Principal Issues and Questions in ECA -- Objective and Scope of the Study -- Organization of the Study -- CHAPTER 2 Sectoral Beneficiaries of Weather Forecasting -- Agriculture -- Disaster Management -- Water Resource Management -- Aviation -- Other Sectoral Beneficiaries -- Findings and Recommendations -- CHAPTER 3 Climate Risk -- Transboundary Weather -- Extreme Weather -- Variable Weather -- Climate Change -- Findings and Recommendations -- CHAPTER 4 National and Regional Capacity of ECA NMHSs -- Typical Steps in Operational Forecasting -- Typical Components of an NMS -- Priorities in NMHS Infrastructural Capacity -- Status of Selected NMHSs in ECA -- Findings and Recommendations -- CHAPTER 5 Economic Benefits of NMHS Modernization -- Objective, Scope, and Approach of the Assessments -- Approaches to Economic Assessment -- Results of Economic Assessment -- Findings and Recommendations -- References -- Color Figures -- LIST OF TABLES -- Table 1.1. Economic Applications Served by National Meteorological Services -- Table 2.1. Selected Valuations of Weather Forecasts to Agriculture -- Table 2.2. Principal Health Impacts of Weather and Climate -- Table 2.3. Economic Goals and Corresponding Requirements for Weather/Climate Service Capacity -- Table 3.1. Damaging Atmospheric Processes, Short and Medium Range -- Table 4.1. Ministerial Subordination of Selected ECA NMSs -- Table 4.2. Weather Forecasts Prepared by Serbian RHMS -- Table 4.3. Serbia: Current and Future Forecasting and Observing Systems-A Comparison -- Table 5.1. Basic Characteristics of the Eight NMHSs Reviewed.

Table 5.2. Main Parameters and Results of Assessment of Economic Benefits of NMHS Services and Proposed Modernization Programs (economic parameters are in US of 2000 constant prices) -- Table 5.3. Damages Incurred by the Most Weather-dependent Sectors fromHydrometeorological Hazards and Unfavorable Weather Conditionsin Georgia (million lari, current prices) -- Table 5.4. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Proposed Modernization Programs (prices in US of 2000) -- LIST OF FIGURES -- Figure 1.1. The Rising Accuracy of Weather Forecasts -- Figure 1.2. Five-day Forecasts Require Almost Worldwide Data -- Figure 3.1. ECA's Principal Transboundary Damaging Weather Patterns -- Figure 3.9. (a) Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation at One Selected Grid Point, According to Six Models of the Atmosphere (Using Economic Scenario A2ASF). (b) Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation at One Selected Grid Point, According Nine Economic Scenarios (Using the HAD300 Atmospheric Model) -- Figure 4.1. Re-analysis of Historical Data (Dashed Line) Compared to Forecasts Actually Delivered Over Past Decades (Solid Line) Shows that Much ofthe Gain in Forecast Accuracy is Due to Models and Computers -- Figure 4.2. An Analysis by the UK Met Office Compared the Impact of Withdrawing Different Types of Data on the Accuracy of Weather Forecast Models for the Northern Hemisphere. Weather Balloon Data is Most Important, Followed by Satellite, Aircraft and Surface Data -- Figure 5.1. Willingness to Pay for Meteorological Information in Azerbaijan and Serbia -- Figure 5.2. Would Reliable Property Insurance Against Natural Disasters Be of Interest to You? -- Figure 3.2(a). Precipitation Extremes -- Figure 3.2(b). Low Temperature Extremes -- Figure 3.2(c). High Temperature Extremes -- Figure 3.3(a). Variable Temperature -- Figure 3.3(b). Variable Precipitation.

Figure 3.4(a). Changes in Temperature in Europe and Central Asia, 1997-2006 Compared to 1968-96 -- Figure 3.4(b). Changes in Soil Moisture Below Surface, 1997-2006 Compared to 1968-96 -- Figure 3.5(a). Land Temperature, 1987-2007 Compared to 1968-96 (change in degrees) -- Figure 3.5(b). Precipitation Rate 1987-2007 Compared to 1968-96 (changein kg/m2/second) -- Figure 3.6(a). Projected Change in Temperature over Europe by the 2080s, According to Six Different Models of the Atmosphere (assuming economic scenario A2ASF) -- Figure 3.6(b). Projected Change in Precipitation over Europe Between Today and the 2080s, According to Six Different Circulation Models (assuming economic scenario A2ASF) -- Figure 3.7 (a). Projected Change in Temperature over Europe by the 2080s, According to Nine Different Models of the Atmosphere (assuming HAD300 model of the atmosphere) -- Figure 3.7 (b). Projected Change in Precipitation over Europe between Today and 2080s, According to Nine Different Models of the Atmosphere (assuming HAD300 model of the atmosphere) -- Figure 3.8(a). Projected Change in Temperature over South Eastern Europe, Assuming A2ASF/HAD300, Projected at 50 km Grid Spacing -- Figure 3.8(b, c). Projected Change in Winter/Summer Precipitation, Assuming A2ASF/HAD300, Projected at 50 km Grid Spacing -- Figure 3.10(a). Observed Trend in Precipitation Rate, September 1987 to August 2007 Compared to 1968-96 -- Figure 3.10(b). Modeled Trend in Precipitation Rate for the Period 2071-2100 Compared to 1961-90 -- Figure 4.3. Map of the Weather Stations that Report Surface Weather to the World Meteorological Organization for Global Sharing and Analysis -- LIST OF BOXES -- Box 2.1: Russian Hydromet Modernization Project -- Box 2.2: Public-Private Partnerships: NMS Commercial Services -- Box 2.3: Public Private Partnerships: MesoWest/Western United States.

Box 2.4: Public-Private Partnerships: Honduras/Georgia -- Box 2.5: Public-Private Partnerships: Meteoagency (Russian Federation) -- Box 2.6: "Storm Ready": Public-Private Partnership in Urban Severe Weather Management -- Box 3.1: Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate: ECMWF -- Box 3.2: Potential Climate Change Adaptations in Albania -- Box 3.3: Potential Climate Change Adaptations in Armenia -- Box 4.1: Poland Flood Emergency Project -- Box 4.2: Data Gaps in Measurement Networks -- Box 5.1: Assessment of the Economic Value of Meteorological Services -- Box 5.2: Economic Benefits of NMS Services (Selected Estimates) -- Box 5.3: Assessment of a Potential Market for Insurance Against Natural Disasters and Hydrometeorological Hazards -- Box 5.4: Madrid Conference Statement and Action Plan.

Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion.Worldwide, the accuracy and value of weather and climate services are rising, bringing great economic benefits. However, many national hydrometeorological services in Europe and Central Asia are in decline. As a result, these potential gains are often missed. Much more could be done to mitigate weather disasters, support the productivity ofsmallholding and commercial agriculture, conserve energy, and promote safe aviation and transport by road and rail. Although capacity deficiencies are serious, they could be remedied significantly by relatively modest-but sustained-investments.Chapter 1 describes the worldwide growth in weather forecasting skill, presents principal issues and questions in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), and sets out the study'sorganization. Chapter 2 assesses the needs of the key sectoral clients of the national hydrometeorological services in the region. Chapter 3 addresses ECA's natural weather and climate issues: vulnerability to transboundary weather events, extreme weather, variable weather, and projected climate change. Chapter 4 presents the forecasting workflow, and then presents key regional and national capacity gaps. Chapter 5 discusses ways to estimate the economic benefit of existing and upgraded forecasting capacity.This study is part of an ongoing Regional Working Paper Series sponsored by the Chief Economist's Office in the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2017. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.