000			04176nam a22003377a 4500
001			200427576
999			_c200427576 _d45500
003			TR-AnTOB
005			20240810073814.0
008			171010b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 tur d
020			_a9786059041881
040			_aTR-AnTOB _beng _cTR-AnTOB _erda
041			_atur
050			_aHD7105.35 .T9 _b E73 2017
090			_aHD7105.35 .T9 _b E73 2017
100			_aErdem, Osman Nuri _9118080
110			_aT.C. Kalkınma Bakanlığı _9106635
245			_aTürkiye'de Kamu Emeklilik Sistemlerinin Aktüeryal Modellemesi : _bActuarial Modelling of Public Pension Schemes in Turkey / _cOsman Nuri Erdem.
264			_aAnkara : _bYıllık Programlar ve Konjonktür Değerlendirme Genel Müdürlüğü, _c2017.
300			_a130 pages : _bcharts, graphics ; _c23 cm
336			_2rdacontent _atext
337			_2rdamedia _aunmediated
338			_2rdacarrier _avolume
500			_aPlanning expertise thesis of Osman Nuri Erdem
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520			_aIn order to perform a long term study of financial structures of the public pension system in Turkey using assumptions regarding the variables affecting such structure and possible policy changes, an actuarial model designed according to the specific conditions of our country is needed to be used. An actuarial model which could reflect the basic tendency and the effects of past reforms in our country and be updated and improved according to the available data opportunities and allows for the examination of the main policy options has been created in order to address the need mentioned in the study for the public pension schemes. The model designed as modular in terms of being visible in intermediate steps of calculations and being improvable according to different needs, has been developed in MS Excel VBA based in order to be used easily. The interacted areas and the methods used in actuarial modeling of public pension schemes has been described in the study. Actuarial model samples produced by international organizations and other countries have been examined for the public pension schemes and the availability of these samples has been evaluated for Turkey. The data source of the model created for the purpose of the study and its functioning process have been described, the results of the test made by the data related to realization years have been evaluated. Then, with regard to set an example for the use of the model, a baseline scenario for the model has been created considering the basic trends of the public pension schemes in our country and the interaction areas of these systems. Later, other scenarios in the nature of sensitivity analysis and examination of the reform option have been produced and compared by changing the relevant assumptions of the baseline scenario. According to the base scenario results, revenue-expenditure balance of SSI runs surplus in 2020s, a revenue-expenditure gap has started to occur after 2030s, the mentioned gap growing quickly and reaching to the 5.1 % so as to the GDP ratio have been seen. Accordingly, the budget transfers to GDP ratio reaches 7 % in the long-run. The increase in general health insurance costs is seen to be more specific in the deterioration of SSI's longterm revenue-expenditure balance. As a result of the comparison of sensitivity analysis and scenarios created in the nature of the reform options, among the basic parameters used in the model, retirement age appears to be the most effective one for the long term financial status of the system. According to the base scenario results, although there is no actuarial balance in public pension schemes in our country, on condition of sticking to the reform implementations, old age, survivor and disability insurance deficit is considered to remain in a controllable level.
650		0	_aOld age pensions _zTurkey _932480
651		0	_aTurkey _xOfficials and employees _xPensions _987519
856			_uhttp://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/Uzmanlk%20Tezleri/Attachments/414/T%C3%BCrkiyede%20Kamu%20Emeklilik%20Sistemlerinin%20Akt%C3%BCeryal%20Modellemesi.pdf
942			_2lcc _cBK